Initial jobless claims
Initial jobless claims fall to 230K
  • Prior week 239K revised to 240K
  • Initial jobless claims 230K vs 240K estimate
  • 4-week moving average initial jobless claims 236.75K vs 234.50K last week .
  • Continuing claims 1,702M vs 1.708M estimate
  • Prior week continuing jobless claims 1.716M revised to 1.711M
  • 4-week moving average for continuing jobless claims 1.6973M vs 1.692M last week.
  • The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending August 12 were in Virginia (+940), Iowa (+860), Illinois (+769), Hawaii (+664), and Arkansas (+388),
  • The largest decreases were in California (-3,959), Texas (-1,641), Pennsylvania (-1,155), Michigan (-1,129), and New York (-963)

The continual pain claims are moving lower. I don't know about you, but I think that BLS can and should adjust their scales on both their initial jobless claims and continuing claims charts? What do you think?

But... the data is indicative of an employment market that is not weakening. Although GDP is lower than a year ago at Jackson Hole and inflation is lower as well, the US unemployment rate is the exact same as it was one year ago at 3.5% and moreover near all-time low levels. That will keep the Fed on hold for an extended period of time at best and could lead to higher rates as well if inflation picks up.

Continuing claims