Retail sales
Retail sales control group bounced back to +4.8%
  • Prior was -1.9% revised to -2.5%
  • Retail sales 3.8% % vs 2.1% estimate
  • Ex autos 3.3% versus 0.8% estimate.
  • Ex autos last month -2.3%
  • Control group 4.8% versus 1.0% estimate. The control group excludes oil, gas, and building materials.
  • Control group last month -3.1%
  • total sales for November 2021 through January 2022 were up 16.1% from the same period a year ago
  • gasoline stations sales were up 33.4% from January 2021
  • food services in trading places were up 27.0% from last year
  • retail trade was up 4.4% from December 2021 and up 11.4% above last year

Recall from last month, the retail sales came in much weaker than expectations (-1.9% versus 0.0% expected). However as Adam pointed out last month, the December retail sales tend to miss because of the secular trends toward early holiday shopping. This year there was the worries of supply constraints which likely was the reason for the slump last month.

However this month's rebound it is certainly impressive despite the revision lower in the prior month to -2.5% from -1.9% and the surge in the omicron cases.

The retail sales is also not adjusted for inflation . With higher prices, the value of retail sales are likely to have an upward bias.