• Prelim was 46.8
  • Prior was 46.2
  • Prices tick higher
  • New orders lower
  • "Reversing the downwards trend seen since last June, the rate of cost inflation ticked higher in January. Greater input prices were attributed to hikes in material and transportation costs"

This is the fourth month below 50 and there's clear slowing in manufacturing but what's particularly worrisome is input costs rising again. Perhaps that shouldn't be a shock with oil, steel and other commodities off the lows but it's not what anyone wants to see.

The ISM manufacturing survey is up next.

US SP Global final PMI

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Despite rising in January, the PMI remains at one of the lowest levels recorded since the global financial crisis, indicating a worryingly steep rate of decline in the health of the goods producing sector. Production has now fallen for three successive months, signalling a sharp fall in output which is now becoming increasingly evident in the official statistics and suggesting that the manufacturing sector has become a major drag on GDP .

“New orders are also slumping as demand from both domestic and export customers comes under increasing pressure from a mix of inflation and slower economic growth. The drop in orders also means that excess capacity is developing, which has in turn meant companies have scaled back their hiring and purchasing, and are also increasingly focusing on reducing their inventory levels.

“Improved supply chains and weaker demand should meanwhile help keep a lid on manufacturing price pressures in the months ahead, though a slight uptick in the survey’s input cost and selling price gauges in January suggests that the road to lower inflation could be bumpier than previously anticipated, reflecting still elevated prices for many raw materials relative to prepandemic levels and sustained upward wage pressures.