US July NAHB home builder sentiment 55 vs 65 expected

• Prior was 67
• Current single-family home sales 64 vs 77 prior
• Sales over the next six months 50 vs 61 prior
• Index of prospective buyers 37 vs 48 prior

This is a big miss but I'm not entirely surprised by it. There's been plenty of talk from home builders about a sudden stop in demand and interest.

In terms of the broader market, I think this is the final nail in the coffin of the 75 vs 100 bps debate. Fed Governor Waller specifically mentioned housing as something he's watching and this is a strong signal. We get housing starts tomorrow and existing home sales Wed but those are lagging indicators while this is leading.

The 30-year fixed rate was right at the peak at the time of last month's report but has since edged down.

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