NAHB housing market index
  • Prior was 50
  • Current single family home sales 61 versus 56 in May
  • home sales over next 6 months 62 versus 57 in May
  • index of prospective buyers versus 33 in May

It's been clear for some time that US housing isn't going to roll over. That's put home builders in an enviable position and they're increasingly confident that high rates aren't going to lead to a US housing crash.

The index level of 50 serves as a key indicator, distinguishing between economic expansion (above 50) and contraction (below 50). Until last month, the index hadn't breached the 50 mark since July 2022, dropping to its lowest at 31 in December 2022. Before the pandemic, the index usually fluctuated between 55 and 70. The pandemic stirred significant volatility , causing the index to surge near 90 and descend to a low around 75. The past year has been marked by drastic declines, coinciding with rising rates, until a bottom late last year.

Regionally, the south is by-far the strongest with the index there at 60.