weekly initial jobless claims June 23
  • Prior was 229K (revised to 231k)
  • Four-week moving average vs 218.5K
  • Continuing claims 1.315m vs 1.315m expected

Given the trajectory on rates, it's fair to say that we've seen the lows in claims. I'd wager that the March low of 166K will be the best reading for a generation. Looking ahead, the question is how quickly this will climb.