Weekly oil inventory data is coming up shortly. Eyes continue to be on the strangely low gasoline demand numbers but HFI Reserach may have figured out what's pushed the numbers to unbelievably low levels. They think the culprit is customs data. The EIA uses it to model gasoline imports/exports and it's skewed the data and the model.
"The issue here is that if product exports are overstated, then it inherently lowers the "implied" demand domestically. That's the reason why when EIA understates exports, implied demand jumps and vice versa," HFI writes.
As for today's data, the consensus is a draw of 1438k barrels. Here's what the API reported late yesterday.
- Crude +593K
- Gasoline -3414K
- Distillates -1726K
- Cushing -599K
I'm closely watching the diesel market as Europe replaces natural gas with it.
CIBC chart
