On Friday last week, USD/JPY moved up from 133.15 to 135.50 after the hot US jobs report before consolidating in and around the 135.00 mark before yesterday's US CPI data. The releases saw consumer inflation ease, at least on the surface, and that was enough for the pair to be dragged down on dollar selling and a fall in Treasury yields.
The initial decline was towards 133.00 but that extended to near 132.00 yesterday before the close settled around 132.87. But as we dig into the new day, price is creeping lower again as the dollar remains sluggish with equities slightly higher and bond yields retreating a little as well at the moment.
As much as we are seeing rather wide daily ranges and sizable moves in the pair over the past few weeks, I would argue that there hasn't been much technical significance since the drop below 135.00. The low last week was held near the 100-day moving average (red line) and that continues to be a key downside support level to watch, currently seen at 131.20. Meanwhile, the 130.00 mark is also a key psychological level to pay attention to and unless sellers can break both technical levels, any major downside pressure is rather contained.
Meanwhile, buyers will have to chase a firm break above 135.00 to really convince of a return back to 140.00 but as mentioned yesterday, the bond market still holds the key in that regard.
Those are the key technical areas that are limiting USD/JPY for the time being and until we get a break on either side, the large intraday moves are nothing more than just "noise" per se.
