The evolution of the Fed funds futures curve over the past month pretty much details that:


The US CPI report today will do little to shift the outlook for the remaining FOMC meeting decisions this year. However, it will play a role in determining the market confidence on the Fed outlook for next year - especially in the first six months.

Previously, traders were rather convinced that we could possibly get the first rate cut in March 2024. But now, trying to price in a rate cut for June 2024 looks a bit suspect at best.

The main reason being that US economic data continues to hold up, especially consumption activity. And so long as employment conditions are not deteriorating rapidly and inflation data continues to stick with a slowing trend - one which is not too fast - then the Fed has all the right settings to go with a higher for longer stance on interest rates.

For today: US August CPI preview: Are we worried about now or later?