A report that OPEC+ won't raise output beyond what's already planned shouldn't have been a surprise so I don't see a catalyst for the latest rally in oil.
However, we've seen over the past six weeks that bearish global sentiment, Chinese lockdowns, a huge SPR release and ultra-high gasoline prices haven't killed prices yet. The takeaway is that Russian oil isn't getting out, so supply is constrained. You have to wonder what happens when the SPR release ends in October.
In any case, this latest move in oil still doesn't look like much on the daily chart, but it is a small slice of evidence that the March-May wedge will resolve to the upside and retest $130.
