Some technical thoughts for a Monday.
EURUSD. The EURUSD sellers pushed the price lower in the NY morning session with the price dipping below the 50% of the range since the July 20 high. That level came in at 1.17857. The low price reached just below that level at 1.17822 before rotating back to the upside. The price high off the low reached into a swing area between 1.1800 and 1.18044. That swing area stalled the rally. The price is currently trading at 1.1797. Going forward it would take a move above 1.1804, and then the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the July 30 high at 1.18146 to increase the bullish bias. A move back below the 50% retracement at 1.17857 would likely not be viewed with as much tolerance on the second break.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD was holding above the 38.2% retracement of the range since July 30 at 1.37472 to start the North American session. That level was broken and the price moved down to test its next key target at the 100 hour moving average at 1.3734. Buyers leaned against the level and the price rotated back to the upside.
The current price is trading above the 38.2% retracement 1.37472. Stay above and I would give the benefit of the doubt in the favor of the buyers/longs. ON the topside, a downward sloping trendline cuts across at 1.3770 currently (and moving lower). A move above it would have traders looking toward a key swing area between 1.3790 and 1.3802. Within that swing area sits the 50% of the range since July 30 at 1.3792 and the 200 day moving average at 1.37998.
Ultimately, getting above that cluster of resistance would be a hurdle for the buyers. What would hurt the buyers is a break back below the 100 hour moving average followed by a break below the 200 hour moving average at 1.37085.
USDJPY: The USDJPY is modestly positive on the day, with the price currently trading quietly between its 200 hour moving average at 109.859, and its 100 hour moving average at 109.922. Above the 100 hour moving average sits the 50% of the range for the month of August at 109.950. The high price today stalled near that 50% level and rotated modestly to the downside.
Going forward, a move back below the 200 hour moving average (with momentum - green line) would have traders looking toward the 100 day moving average at 109.644 as the next key downside target.
Conversely a break above the 50% retracement level would have traders focused on the 110.649 level. That is home to the 61.8% retracement of the August trading range. It also was a swing high going back to August 23. Get above that level, and traders would be eyeing a topside trendline near 110.29.
USDCAD: The USDCAD move lower in the early North American session and the price move below the low from last week at 1.25778. The sellers had their shot. The doors opened for further downside momentum with the 200 day moving average at 1.2542 the next key target. However, that moved to the downside failed. The price rebounded back above the high of the swing area at 1.25962.
The current price trade at 1.26087 with the 100 hour moving average at 1.26263 as the next key upside target. Get above that and it should open up the door for another run toward the 200 hour moving average at 1.26825. On Thursday and Friday of last week, the price try to get above that moving average, but failed.
If the price can't get above the 100 hour moving average, despite the failed attempt on the break lower today, the sellers would still have more control.
