Back below 100 hour MA

The AUDUSD has retraced toward the day's midpoint at 0.72284. The low just reached 0.7229 on the current hourly bar (trade at 0.7233).

Back below 100 hour MA

The pair started the day running lower ahead of the RBA decision. The statement was perceived to be "less dovish" than expected (or shorts were in), and the price moved higher. That run higher stalled at topside trend line (see red circles). The retracement lower today, first stalled at the 38.2% and then fell through that level in the NY session. In the process, the price also moved below the 100 hour MA at 0.7244. That MA is a risk/bias level now. Stay below, more bearish. Move above and the dip buyers from the 50% will feel better.

There is a reason to buy (at the 50% - buyers are ok there) and a reason to sell (against the 100 hour MA - seller are good there). We will see who wins the next battle.