AUD/USD rises above 0.7100 with RBA decision due later

AUD/USD technical analysis

The Australian dollar has shaken off a sharp decline in oil prices, a downgrade of BHP Billiton and weak Chinese data to post a small gain today.

Look for a much larger move in the day ahead with the RBA decision due up at 0330 GMT. Only one of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a rate hike so the focus will likely be on guidance around future cuts and the Australian dollar.

Technically, AUD/USD has been in a mild uptrend since forming a double-bottom on Jan 14/19 at 0.6825. It has slowly tacked on gains to rise as high as 0.7141 on Friday. It fell earlier today but has clawed back and is trading at a session high.

The recent high corresponds with the 61.8% retracement of the January decline. A break (and close) above it would target a retracement to 0.7325.