Trading near the lows despites oils tumble
Oil is tumbling (see Adam's post here), but the CAD is holding in. In fact, it has moved higher higher (USDCAD is lower).
What now?
Looking at the hourly chart, the pair is testing the lower channel trend line that can be interpretted as a bull flag. The price trended higher this week. The price consolidated in a channel. The low today is still above the 38.2% of the move up at 1.3449.
So the question is "Is it a bull flag and a buy here? or "Do the sellers crack lower (and through the 38.2% and 100 hour MA, tilting the bias lower?"
I think you have to give the "bull flag" a shot and that is what we are seeing. The good news is risk is defined vs. the 100 hour MA. A break below, get out.
