A move below will be eyed by sellers now followed by the 126.16-21 area
The EURJPY stalled yesterday at a swing area in the 126.269-213 area (see green circle 4). The fall stalled and today the price moved higher. That run higher ran into the ceiling once again at the 126.784 area (see red circle). Sellers entered with risk defined and limited. The price moved lower.
The falll from the high today moved down to test the rising 100 hour MA, and that level has stalled the fall (so far at least). Dip buyers, looking for more upside (and move above the ceiling) are sticking a toe against the MA level, with stops likely on a break below. Like at the highs, risk is defined and limited.
If broken, the sellers will next look toward the 126.169-213 area (see green circles). That is the home to the swing levels and is also the underside of a broken trend line.
Overall, the pair has been stepping high since the bottom on March 27th with two trend runs higher (from 123.819 to 125.64 and from 124.77 to 126.79).
The last four days has consolidated the last run higher with cause for pause at the highs/ceiling. The consolidation has allowed the 100 hour MA to catch up with the price. That gives traders a tool to define the next bias.
Of course, since the pair has been moving higher, a move lower will have targets that will need to be broken to shift the bias back lower and give sellers more confidence. However, there is also a ceiling which has the sellers digging in.
So the battle is on, but the levels are well defined.
