There's a rather large obstacle to the upside in EURUSD and it's becoming a very tough nut to crack
The area between 1.1380 and 1.1400 is proving to be a very strong level. The level has played a big part in the moves all year and not even a 200 pip fall in USDJPY could help the euro crack it
EURUSD daily chart
While the 1.1380 level is strong I would be cautious about trading it if we moved back up there quite quickly. If you do look to trade it then perhaps think about a tight stop somewhere just above 1.1400. If it does break then watch for a re-test to hold as a sign to look at a long there
Closer to the current price, the minor trendline was broken briefly but we're back below, and we could see resistance coming in against it again. That's at 1.1355 and the area around 1.1330/40 is closer resistance right now. We're also seeing resistance form at 1.1310
EURUSD 15m chart
Should we move lower, 1.1280 looks like minor support, followed by better support at 1.1270. We get stronger down at 1.1215/20
Bond yields are once again in focus with bunds breaking through 1.0% to a 1.057% high. We're back below to 0.991% as I type but yields are up strongly across the board. The market is once again reading rising inflation and better economic data into European markets but Italy gave that a kick in the pants with the IP numbers earlier.
The euro is starting to turn into the dollar whereby the shift in sentiment is making the downside a tougher trade. With that in mind, and the current views on the yen and dollar, I'm going to be looking for any decent dips towards 1.11 to think about loading up some longs. I'm also going to think about playing a long if 1.1380 breaks and holds
