And it trading around a key level too.
The EURUSD moved higher more on what Yellen did not say vs. what she did say. More specifically, she did not give any clues on monetary policy and the market took that as dovish toward rates. US yields are lower (10 year down 3 bp). Gold reversed and moved higher (up $6.24).
For the EURUSD, it moved and then through the 1.1876 level. That is the swing low going back to 2010 (see chart above).
The price of the EURUSD has traded above and below the level over the last few hours with a high of 1.1889 and a low of 1.1867.
Going into Jackson Hole Part II where ECBs Mario Draghi takes the stage, the market has a chance to trade the EUR side of the equation.
Will Draghi give more hawkish comments or will he take the opportunity to bemoan the deflationary aspects of the stronger EUR?
The EURUSD is trading at the highest level since the start of 2015. Versus the GBP, the EURGBP is trading at the highest level since 2009. That is a lot of headwind.
Yes, Europe is recovering (the German data was pretty good today) but will the economy slow.
Technically, the price action will tell the story.
As mentioned, the EURUSD is going into the speech at lofty levels. The 1.1876 level is a key bullish above/bearish below barometer. A move below that level and then the 1.1846 level (high price from August 11) would be more bearish. The 1.18448 is also currently the 38.2% of the move up from the low today (see hourly chart above). So a break below that level could see further downside momentum.
On the topside, if Draghi bites the bullet and talks more upbeat economically, the highs from August at 1.18927 and 1.19098 will be eyed. I would expect the pips to be harder if there is a run to 1.1900-08 area (with stops on a break above).
For the EURGBP, looking at the 4-hour chart above, the broken trend line cuts across at 0.9200 currently. A break below the trend line (and that natural level) would likely be enough to kick the can down the bearish road for the pair.
Below that the 0.9144-54 area is home to swing high going back to November 2009 (see monthly chart below). It is also a trend line on the hourly chart (chart above) As a result, a move below that area would increase the bearish scenario and next target the 100 hour MA below at 0.9105 (blue line in the chart above).
Absent those moves, and the bulls remain in control in the EURGBP. The trend remains in tact and the buyers are winning.