EURUSD has its largest week decline since March 2020

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | eurusd-him

Down 210 pips on the week

The EURUSD has had its largest week decline since March 2020 when the price fell 336 pips. The fall this week at current levels has seen the price move from the week Friday close at  1.18376 to the current level of 1.16276. That is a decline of 210 pips.  

Down 210 pips on the week

Looking at the weekly chart above, the move to the downside has re-approached its 50% midpoint of the range since the 2018 swing high at 1.2550 to the 2020 swing low at 1.06347. That 50% midpoint comes in at 1.15949. The low price today reached 1.16117. 

That midpoint is a barometer for bulls and bears/buyers and sellers. If the price is able to extend the declines back below that level, that should solicit more sellers and increase the bearish tilt. Stay above and the buyers are more in control.

The high price reached in the August 30 week peaked at 1.2010. That move above the natural resistance at 1.2000 was short lived (it occurred within a single hourly bar). Since then, the initial move to the downside reached 1.17518 on September 9. On September 10 the price had already bounce back to 1.195157. Since then, lower highs have taken the price to the low today at 1.16117.

Going forward, if the midpoint can be breached next week, the next target would be the January 2019 swing high at 1.1569. Below that is a swing area between 1.14918 and 1.15137. Apart from the January 2019 week from the period between October 2018 and the July 19 week this year, the price stayed below that area. The last 10 weeks of trading have been able to stay above that swing area (see red numbered circles).

Overall, the move to the downside this week has been significant. However it is running into some support that would be telling for both buyers and sellers. The 50% midpoint level will be a key level in the new trading week at the 1.15949 level. Be aware.

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