Draghi has fired his shot. Now it is the Fed's turn

The EURUSD moved lower yesterday on the Draghi dovish comments. Today it is the Fed's turn.

Draghi has fired his shot. Now it is the Fed's turn

Will the Fed surprise with an pre-emptive insurance cut or wait for the G20 to come and go and cut in July if needed? Will they turn the dot plot to reflect lower rates in the future. What will Powell say to appease the President (or will he remain neutral?).

Technically, the pair is higher on the day after stalling near a lower trend line yesterday (around 1.1175). The range today is only 21 pips (the 22 day average is 56 pips). We trade near the highs as traders tilt a little toward the dollar lower bias ahead of the Fed.

The pair remains below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.12135. That level stalled the rally yesterday on the higher correction. A downward sloping trend line is a little below that level at 1.1210 currently. Moves above those levelsa, will start to look toward the 100 hour MA at 1.12279 and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.12343. The 38.2% of the move down rom the June 12 high comes in at 1.12427. That was near the high from yesterday (completes the down on ECB, up on Fed lap).

Those are the battle lines for the traders in the short term. Will the Fed take the baton from the ECB and reverse the dollar. I know there is one person in Washington who willl be watching intently to see how his central bank head reacts. That puts a lot of pressure on the Fed Chair....