Technical analysis from Nomura and JP Morgan on Elliott-Wave setup for EUR/USD around current levels. Nomura's view has a shorter time-frame than that of JP Morgan.
Nomura: Once retracement completes, expect another 5-wave rally.
"Euro is correcting the first wave higher from 1.0524. So far the
retracement has met the 38.2% Fib at 1.0805. The previous 4th wave low
at 1.0789 also offered minor support for this corrective pullback.
S/t, we expect the 1.0800/0780 zone to mark a corrective low but there is scope for a deeper retracement to 1.0750 or 1.0700.
Because we saw a 5-wave rally off the low, we are looking for another
5-wave rally once this pullback completes," Nomura argues.
JP Morgan: Given structures are still endangering the 2015 low at 1.0462.
"Despite the massive short-covering rally of Thursday last week we
still see a very high likelihood that we are only dealing with an
internal 4th wave recovery which would not penetrate the wave 1 low at
1.1087.
Below the latter the odds remain in favor of a continued and
incomplete down-rotation which should at least challenge key-support at
1.0485/62 (wave 3 projection/2015 low).
A break above 1.1087 though would indicate a game change in favor of a
broader recovery, which would need a break above 1.1216 (w. trend) to
be confirmed," JPM projects.
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I'm not a user of Elliott Wave, but if you are, comments and views welcome! Do you agree? What's your own Elliott Wave analysis say for EUR/USD?
