Needs to get over the next hurdle

The EURUSD is seeing an extension currently of what was a 47 pip trading range to a 59 pip trading range. Well it is a start.

If you recall, yesterday the pair fell below the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines in the chart above) and extended lower toward the underside of the broken trend line. The bearish bias was not going to be easy as the 200 day MA loomed not far away at 1.1162 yesterday and 1.11569 today.

Well support held at the underside trend line today (and the lows from yesterday) and a rally was back on. The price in the European session broke above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) and then 200 hour MA (green line). The correction held against the 100 hour MA and we saw the extension higher.

The pair has now been able to extend above a floor/ceiling area from yesterday (see 5 minute chart below) but is finding the 50% of the move lower yesterday as a sticky resistance level (see chart below at 1.1230) It can never be easy. Longs need to see that next target at the 50% taken out. That would open the door for further upside.

Putting things in perspective, the pair is mired in a slump and consolidating between a topside and bottom trend line on the daily chart (see below). The price has been above the 100 and 200 day MAs (blue and green lines in the chart below) since September 23rd (on a closing basis at least). The pair tried life below the 100 and 200 hour MAs yesterday, That fizzled. So now it is trying to extend higher. The bias is more bullish with work to be done (like get above that 50% at the 1.1230 level!)

The US trade data is just out and shows that exports took a hit on weak overseas demand and the effects of a strong dollar. We will see if the EURUSD can hold the support and continue the extension above the 50% or is it going to just fizzle out. When the range is so narrow, I look for the extension to happen. More patient buyers may look toward the 1.1200 level. Longs from below need that break above the 1.12300 (50%) to get going.... The 1.12438 is the next upside target. The 1.1247 is the highest close since September 18. IT is like pulling teeth but the tooth will eventually be pulled....Right?!