Been through a lot but 100 day MA is tough.

The EURUSD has taken a tumble in the NY traders session. The range as NY traders entered for the day was only around 25 pips. The extension lower has pushed that range to 68 pips so far (the 22 day average also 68 pips). It is not the most active pairs of late, but it is good to see SOME action and the average to be achieved.

The pair has moved back below moving average levels that continue to split the difference in the up and down market that the pair has been trading. The 100 and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart have been broken at 1.1214 and 1.12236 respectively. The 100 and 200 hour MAs (not shown) were broken at 1.12188 and 1.1203 respectively. The 100 day MA comes in at 1.11865. That is the sticky point. The low for the day made it to 1.1190. The pair is currently trading around the 50% of the move up from last weeks low at the 1.12000 level.

Yesterday, the EURUSD moved above a broken trend line and tried to stay above that level. Traders waffled the price above and below the broken line in the Asian Pacific and London morning session. That is not a good thing. You expect a strong broken trend line to move away from that line, or at the very least hold that line on a retest. It did not. It could not. So sellers took back control. The buyers from yesterday, exited today. Game over.

Now that the game is over, what's the next play?

When you are in the middle of the field, there can be a battle. Buyers against the 100 day MA is a low risk trade (stops on a break of course) -especially with the range for the day, near the 22 day average trading range. However, traders will be watching how the broken moving averages above fit in the traders plan.

Looking at the 5-minute chart, the overlay of the 100 hour MA stalled the one NY corrective rally. Just below that is the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart.

There is the 200 hour MA at the 1.12028 level currently. If traders REALLY love the short side, they won't wait for higher levels but will keep the lid near the 1.1200 level/near the 200 hour MA. It is close to the that key 100 day MA but when the ranges are confined (even at 68 pips it is narrow), there may not be a lot of wiggle room if the market wants to trend a little more.