Weaker Empire manufacturing data sends the dollar lower

The Empire Manufacturing data came in at -1. vs 7 estimate and that has sent the EURUSD higher (the dollar lower). The pair is testing the 50% of the move down from the May 2016 high at the 1.09775 level. Above that, there is a trend line that cuts across at 1.0993. A week ago (on Monday), the price opened above the trend line but quickly failed. Needless to say a break above (and staying above that level would be more bullish for this pair and traders will be looking up toward 1.1100 and 1.1128 (61.8%).

The pair has pushed to new highs on the weaker US data, but the pair had been trending higher prior to the report. Drilling to the 5-minute chart, the price consolidated sideways in the Asian session after Friday's gains. That allowed the shorter term MA to catch up. There was a single test of the 200 bar MA (see green line in the chart below near the lows), and that started the trend higher.

The 1.0952-58 is now the 38.2%-50% of the move higher. Stay above that (yellow area), and the buyers are still in control. Closer support may come in at the trend line higher. That is catching up to the swing low at 1.09636 level (intraday).