Following the technical story line...
It seems to me that the market is listening to the technicals. Not that it is always easy but listen to this story....I will pick it up from near the highs...
The EURUSD had the 200 day MA at the 1.1030 level and the 100 day MA at the 1.1060 level. Those MAs are fairly close together and key technical levels the market pays attention to. The price moved above the 200 day MA to 1.1042 in the late NY afternoon session on continued shorts being squeezed, but could not get to the 100 day MA. Trading slowed the trend. After the pair moved below the 200 day MA (green overlay line), traders started to use that MA as resistance (see blue circle 1 on the 5 minute chart.
The fall then took the price below other support levels. First it was a trend line (at blue circle 2) and then the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue circle 3). The 200 bar MA and the 38.2-50% of the last trend move higher yesterday were the next targets (at blue circle 4) and they were broken. Another trend line was than taken out (at blue circle 5) and the selling continued into the NY session.
Over the last hour or so, the price has consolidated sideways. The 38.2- 50% of the last leg down held the resistance so far but it is testing after the US data (initial claims a little weaker). Stay below and we could see continued selling. Move above and the 100 bar MA and the market gets more muddy with regard to the trend. We could see a move back toward the 1.0991 where the 200 bar MA (green line is found).
Looking at the hourly chart, at the lows, the pair has found key support at a lower trend line (see blue circle 4 in the chart below) This too may be enough to keep the action more two way for the time being. A break below, however, will be another bearish signal for the pair. The 50% midpoint of the weeks trading range at 1.0918 and then the 100 hour MA at 1.0900 will be the next targets.
Right now, focus is on the 50% and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute. So far, the level is holding the line.
