Mersch... "timid signs of inflation building"....
The EURUSD has moved higher before the NY session and is now giving those gains up. Mersch said there were "timid signs of inflation building". So inflation is building but timidly. I guess that is a hedge. Did it move the EURUSD lower? Maybe it helped. The US initial claims were higher than expected but still near lower level.
Technically, the price rise earlier in the London morning session, moved above the 200 hour MA (green line) for the first time since the quickly rejected spike higher after the US employment data last Friday. That was bullish today and the price moved higher.
The move back below that 200 hour MA line two hours later gave the opposite reaction. That was bearish and the price scooted back lower.
The fall has taken the price back to the 100 hour MA (blue line) at 1.15996 (call it 1.1600 level). Mike would say 10 AM ET option expires likely stalled the fall. I say the 100 hour MA stalled the fall. We are probably both right. Crowds gather at key levels and can stop a speeding train. It can also lead to stops on a break below. So be aware.
Right now, the EURUSD is stalling (buyers and sellers battle). The 200 hour MA at 1.16204 is resistance. The 100 hour MA is support. We may trade between those levels and see if the stocks and the reaction from the Senate tax plan push the needle more bullish (again - above the 200 hour MA) or more bearish (again - below the 100 hour MA).
PS the range for the week with 1 day and 7 1/2 hours left, has the EURUSD in a 91 pips range (pathetic). That would be the lowest trading range since August 2014 FYI. Last week the range was not much better at 97 pips. UGH. All eyes are looking for the catalyst to get the pair moving.
