Greece aside. Jobs expected to add 225K in the current month

The US jobs report is due at 8:30 AM ET and the market can put aside Greece for a bit. The market is expecting 225K after last months 223K. For a look at the trends in US employment CLICK HERE.

Technically, the EURUSD has seen a sharp rally in trading this week that saw the EURUSD climb nearly 500 pips (492 pips actually). Yesterday, although the pair hit new highs for the week and month at 1.13787, the pair closed lower on the day on Greece news. Today, that momentum lower was extended in Asian Pacific trading, but German factory orders for April were better than expected at 1.4% vs. 0.5% in the common currency for Europe moved higher.

The pair is back down (German bund yields fell) and the pair is currently trading near closing levels from yesterday's trading.

This day is a risky day for traders as there are reactions to the headline jobs, then revisions, earnings, breakdowns to consider. So unless the main headlines come out unambiguously stronger or weaker it is best to stay to the side and watch the action until you can make a judgement. If it is neutral, the action becomes more muddy as well. So job 1 is to look for unambiguously bullish or bearish.

Job 2 is to target levels to define and limit risks.

Looking at the hourly chart, the correction has taken the pair to the 38.2% of the weeks trading range. That level comes in at 1.11905 (the low extended to 1.1178 last night before rebounding). A move below both those levels, does not have a lot to target other than the key 100 hour moving average and 50% retracement of the weeks range , which currently is at 1.11325 to 1.11389 area.

On a stronger number (>230 with upward revisions), this would be an obvious target area to shoot for today (all things being equal). It would get the trading range for the day to about 140 pips which has been around the average range over the last month of trading. That makes sense. For traders, look for a move lower, and then the bounce to hold under 1.1190-1.12000 (don't want to see a move back above 1.1209 - 61.8% of the all time range). From there you look for the rotation toward the targets. That is what you look for.

ON something really strong, that sees the 100 hour MA broken, the next targets to look toward would be the 100 day MA and 61.8% of the move up from the weeks lows. Those levels come in at 1.10711-742 (see blue horizontal line in the chart above). That would be about 207 pips. THis week we have had two 200 pip trading days. So it is not out of the question.

ON a weaker number, the EURUSD will look toward the high for the day and the high from Wednesday at the 1.1179 and 1.1184 area. Above that and the corrective swing high from yesterday at the 1.13168(red circle 2), the underside of the broken trend line (red circle 3) at the 1.1136 level, and finally the high for the week at 1.13787. A move to the high would be close to a 200 pip move. Again, not out of the question on a weak number. With Greece, it might be more difficult to rallly, but then again, nothing stopped it earlier this week. SO be prepared.

Look for the move and then correction, But be careful. The number can be tricky.