Draghi is 24 hours away....

The EURUSD remains contained.

  • 44 pip range
  • Up and down activity
  • Range for the week is 81 pips
  • Since Friday the range is 90 pips
  • The middle of the 4-day sideways is 1.3450 and that is where the price is trading.

What else do we know?

  • Yesterday, the price found sellers at the 100 hour MA
  • Today, the pair found sellers near the 200 hour MA and the 38.2% of the move down from the Oct 15 high (200 hour MA at 1.1373 currently and 38.2% is at 1.13775. The high came in at 1.13765 today).
  • A lower trend line from Oct 2 connecting to Oct 6th, has had a few look-sees below this week, with no momentum (see chart above). That trend line comes in at 1.1340 currently.
  • Other targets below include the 1.1325 and then the week low at 1.1305.

It seems we do this every week, but the 81 pip range for the week is the lowest since August 2014 (79 pips) if it held for the rest of the week. That was FX investigation time and apres World Cup/summer time apathy time.

The best we can say, Draghi up in less than 24 hours. The market is trying to force more QE into his comments (they will likely do it every month). The ECB has said that QE would continue until Sept 2016. We are in October. So end date is 11 months away. Is there a rush to increase it? He may skew his comments though. Look for a break. Know the extremes though as the tides can turn at support and resistance if there is not a reason to break.

PS Earnings continue to harp on the negative currency effect. Highlight of the stock day....Farrari IPO. Yippee. Bank of Canada at 10 AM ET.