Inventory data mixed. Oil moves higher..
Although crude oil inventories rose (+118K vs -2250K est), gasoline inventories fell (-894k vs. 0k estimate) and the inventory number released last night foreshadowed the surprise (a bit). The price of crude oil fell into the red briefly but is back trading higher (up about $0.50).
For the USDCAD it too whipped around a bit - rising modestly first - but has continued its fall and trades at new session low and the lowest level since Feb 24. On that day back in Feb, the price bottomed at 1.30418. The price is approaching that next target level (the low is 1.3051 so far).
Below that are other swing levels with the 1.3000-08 area home to a number of swing lows (see red circles), and 1.29689 the 2017 low price from January. That is also at the 61.8% of the move up from the May 2016 low (low from 2016). Both those levels should give some cause for pause on tests (with stops below).
Drilling to the 5-minute chart, are there any intraday trading clues?
The low price just tested a lower trend line area and we are seeing a modest bounce.
That bounce has taken the price back toward what was an intraday floor before the inventory data being released at 1.3076 level. It is also the 38.2% of the last trend leg lower in the pair (from the NY session high at 1.3116). For intraday traders, that is close risk. Stay below and the trend move seen today, can continue. A move above and it may not be the end of the bearishness, but it should lead to more consolidation./correction and allow the 100 bar MA catch up to the price (blue line in the chart below). The upper trend line may also be tested.
