Oil near unchanged on the day
The USDCAD moved higher in trading earlier today as oil futures traded lower (the low for the Sep contract traded to 41.64). However, the price has since rebounded and with it has seen the USDCAD move back lower Although new lows for the oil contract were printed on Friday, the price of the USDCAD has not been able to approach the August high at the 1.3212. That was the highest level going back to August 2004. So there is a bit of a reluctance by traders to push the price higher.
Nevertheless, the pair remains above the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) at the 1.3094 level. It is also above the 1.3102-09 where there have been a number of swing lows and highs going back to August 3rd. This should be an area that if the buyers like it, should show up.
Rates are expected to remain on hold. GDP is looking toward a 2nd consecutive negative reading but is expected to rebound in the 2H. Job growth is ok. Housing is going well. Oil is the wild card - and perhaps election jitters as PM Harper vies for a 4th term in October.
