Weaker US employment cracks support levels

The USDCHF has moved below the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart below), and the lows from Nov/Dec 2014 (pre-SNB de-peg) at the 0.9531-52 area (yellow area in the chart below) after the weaker than expected US employment report. This area now become resistance for the pair - stay below in the bears remain control.

Although the move below these technical levels is more bearish, the remains pretty good support now below against the 200 day moving average currently at 0.9428 (and moving higher by about 3 pips per day. Before that a low price going back to October 28 comes in at 0.9441. I would expect that if the bears are able to keep the pressure on USD in trading next week, that a test of this area, would nevertheless find support buyers at least on the 1st test. If there is a break, I would expect the dip buyers to turn to sellers.

Looking the hourly chart, the low today, is stalling near the lows from last week. Next week we will need to see the price move away from this area.

The move below the 0.9531-52 is bearish however and will dictate my bias.

Note that last week the move lower gathered some momentum when the price broke below the 0.9531-53 area (yellow area). That break did fail and the price moved back above the yellow area. Buyers leaned against it (at blue circle 3 and 4).

Today's break is the 2nd attempt to stay below this support area. If the price can stay below, a move toward a test of the 200 day can be expected. If the price can not stay below in next weeks trading, the waters will get a little more muddy for the pair, and we should see a further correction higher on the failed break.

Key line in the sand for next week: 0.9531-52.above. On the downside, the 200 day MA.

Fundamentally, the SNB is always in the back of my mind with anything that has CHF. If the CHF gets too strong, they could lower rates even further or intervene (they will not peg again). So that makes me think the 200 day MA will hold. Having said that, if stocks start to crack, the CHF may attract safe haven flows. So that will be another wild card to eye next week.