Does the MA matter?
In September the price of the USDJPY traded above the 200 day MA on 6 separate occasions with zero closes above. The last 7 days saw the price trade above and below the MA level on 6 of the 7 days (yesterday was the exception). There was 4 days with closes above and 2 below. Does the 200 day MA matter? Well, on the surface, no. After all, the market does not seem to pay much attention to it on the daily chart.
However, if you look at the hourly chart, there has been some "action" above and below the level intraday (see arrows in the chart below).
There seems to be a market reaction, there just is not a follow through on the breaks. Each move above failed with two going to the same high, and falling off.
The current price for the USDJPY is heading toward the 200 day MA at the 121.04 level once again. If it touches that will be 7 of 8 days with the price trading at the MA line. However, it could also be a line for traders to lean against on this test. Look for traders - long from below - to take some profit against the level - with stops on a move above. But like the previous days, the habits from the past are hard to break. So if there is a move above and the move fails, do not be surprised if the rally higher today, fizzles.
