Trend line at 1.3156. 50% retracement at 1.3167
The GBPUSD as continued its move to the upside after breaking above its 200 week moving average yesterday at 1.30976 (it also raised above its 100 week moving average this week at 1.30468). The low for today stalled ahead of that moving average at 1.3100 and has wandered higher. The high for the day reached 1.3147. We currently trade at 1.3132.
Technically, looking at the weekly chart above, the pair is indeed above its 200 week moving average (bullish - green line), but faces upside resistance against day topside trend line at 1.3156 (connects the highs from July 2014 and April 2018).
Just above that level sits the 50% retracement of the move down from the September 2017 high to the September 2019 low. That 50% midpoint comes in at 1.3167.
So the bias is indeed bullish above those key weekly moving averages but there remains upside hurdles to get to and through for the bulls. As a result, there may be sellers leaning against the dual area on the 1st test, with stops on a break above. Risk can be defined and limited against the levels.
Risk for longs/buyers remains at the 200 week moving average near the 1.3100 level.
Closer intraday risk may come against the 1.3121 area. That is the 61.8% retracement of the last surge higher today (on the 5 minute chart). The 200 bar moving average on the 5 minutes chart is also approaching that level (green line). A move below would weaken the technical picture intraday.
