GBPUSD: Trades at the 200 day MA at the start of the trading week.

The pair fell below the 200 day MA for the first time since April 2018...

The GBPUSD trades around the 200 day MA after falling below that MA on Friday for the first time since mid April 2017. The pair closed right at the MA level, making this week important for the next step.

Last week, looking at the daily chart, the pair fell below a trend line and outside the 3-plus month range (below 1.37114 - see red box). The fall below that level on Tuesday was met with momentum selling.

The push took the price below the swing high from September 2017 at 1.36547 on the way to the Friday lows at 1.34855.

Both the 1.36547 and the 1.3711 are key levels for the bears, and the bulls. A move above, would taint the bearish break from last week. With the price at 1.3534, the price is still a bit away from those levels.

Staying on the daily chart, the 38.2% at 1.3463, would be a key level to get to -and through - on the downside for more bearish momentum this week. The level roughly corresponds with the January low (and low for the year) at 1.3457. So the combination makes for a key technical level for sellers. A break should see more downside momentum.

Drilling to the hourly chart below, the fall on Friday, dipped below a lower trend line that cuts across today at 1.3489. A break below that line and the low from last week at 1.34855, opens the door for more downside.

On the topside, the corrective moves stalled rallies. That topside trend line comes in at 1.3555 currently (and moving lower). Above that trend line, is the 100 hour MA (blue line) at 1.36083 (and moving lower). On April 26th, the price moved above that MA line for 2 hourly bars, before reversing back lower. Getting - and staying above - would give buyers more confidence, but understand, the price has to stay above.

SUMMARY: The GBPUSD is starting the week stalled around its 200 day MA at 1.35345. The intraday price action can swing the pair higher in which case the 1.3555 trend line, followed by the 100 hour MA at 1.3608 become key targets to get and stay above.

If, however, the selling momentum/trend continues (I have to respect the trend right now), the lower trend line at 1.3489 and the low from last week at 1.34855 will be eyed for breaks. Below those levels, the 38.2% at 1.3463, and low from January 2018 at 1.3457 will the key levels to get and stay below.