The pair fell sharply yesterday but swings higher today
The GBPUSD moved higher to test it's 100 day MA yesterday at 1.3912 and found sellers against the key level. A move back into the dollar on risk off flows (into the JPY, CHF and lesser extent, the USD) helped to push the pair away from that key MA as well.
The selling yesterday, snowballed with persistent selling that saw the pair fall below the 100/200 hour MAs and 200 day MA in the US afternoon session. The low stalled near a swing area between 1.3790 and 1.37965 (see red numbered circles). The 38.2% of the move up from the August 20 low was also in that area.
The price action today has seen a rotation back higher (albeit with some ups and downs) in and around the aforementioned MAs. The price has moved above 100 hour MA (the highest MA level) at 1.38387. Traders are trying to stay above that level, but a break back lower can not be ruled out. The 200 hour MA and 200 day MA are at 1.3875 area. Move below those MA levels and the bears would be back in control technically and the buyers and sellers continue to fight it out.
Yesterday, I did a post of the 5 minute chart (see post here). The price correction yesterday of the initial move lower stalled right at the 200 bar MA and reversed lower (see green line in the 5 minute chart below).
Today, after reaching a new low into support on the hourly, the price moved back above the 100/200 bar MAs on the 5 minute chart which weakened the sellers. On the dip in early US trading, the buyers leaned this time against the 200 bar MA (green line), and moved higher.
The move to the highs today, have moved up to test the 50% midpoint of the run lower at 1.38522. That is a good place to stall the rally. It at least sets a risk defining level that if breached would be more bullish today.
If the sellers do reenter (with the 50% as the ceiling), moving below the 100 hour MA, the 200 hour and 200 day MA would be the next steps.....
