GBPUSD trading to new year lows

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | gbpusd

Traded most of the day below the July 17 low

The GBPUSD extended to a new session low and in the process has moved to new year lows and away from the July 17th old year low. Back on July 17, the price bounced and raced for two days from 1.23818 to 1.25575.  That high stalled at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart.

Traded most of the day below the July 17 low

Since then, there have been two other tests of that MA line (last Wednesday and Thursday). Each moved above for a few hourly bars only to fail. 

The move back lower away from that 100 bar MA on the 4-hour say the price break the 100 and 200 horu MA on Thursday and a swing area at 1.2417-19 on Friday. The low on Friday stalled around the July 17 (and low for 2019) at 1.23818. 

Today, the price has traded mostly below the 1.23818 level. That is now risk for shorts. Stay below and the sellers are firmly in control.

Drilling down to the 5 minute chart below, the pair, apart from a few bars on Friday, has trended below the 100 bar MA (blue line at 1.23785 currently).  That MA line is at 1.23785 - close to the 1.23818 low from July 17 and increasing the levels importance for the trend.  A move above does not necessarily mean the trend down is over, but it could be indicative of a slowing of the momentum.  It would take a move above the 200 bar MA at 1.23910 to get more shorts concerned about a bigger correction higher. 

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