Gold down $15 to $1246

Gold prices hit stops on a decline below $1250 in a quick move.

The easy part of the rally for gold is over.

The bulls might get some help from the ECB but the market has priced in a tremendous amount of easing. Afterwards, it's on to the Fed and given the upbeat turn in markets and data, the FOMC is more likely to surprise with something hawkish.

If the US dollar can get its legs back, watch out. March is a seasonally weak month for gold and a retracement of half the 2016 gain would take it back to $1168. That enough to squeeze out all the bulls who were late to the party but leave the uptrend intact.