Here's why...
The USDCHF has participated in the dollar rally over the last few days of trading (including today ). The move higher today took the price above its 100 hour moving average for the 1st time since March 25. The price also extended above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March 20 high. That retracement level comes in at 0.96536.
The current price is trading back below the 38.2% retracement, but it did hold the 100 hour moving average on the last hourly bar. That moving average comes in at 0.96386.
If the price can stay above the 100 hour moving average, the corrective buying can continue. A move below, however, and the technical picture deteriorates. We could/should see the buyers give up, with the 0.9617 trend line as the next downside target.
Hold the 100 hour moving average, and a rotation back toward the topside trend line (currently at 0.9680) and the downward sloping trendline at 0.96944 would be targets.
Keep in eye on the 100 hour moving average for bias clues today.
