• likelihood still lower than during the peak of crisis in 2012
  • recent political turmoil in Greece have increased the risk
  • higher risk could have negative credit implications for other member states
  • european policy makers could use their powers to limit risk of contagion in short term but would face challenges in medium term
  • in the event of exit the Greek economy would probably suffer severe economic damage in the short term

EURUSD 1.1789 weighed by yen pair selling as USDJPY heads lower still