Sorrects to 38.2% retracement

Yesterday, there was some interest to sell the NZDCAD (see: Could the NZDCAD be topping? The technicals are giving a small topping clue.). It's not a pair I normally follow, but if consistent with technicals, you can analyze anything, and determine a bias, risk, targets.

Looking at the hourly chart above, the pair had a series of tops in the 0.9250-55 area. Risk was defined at that level.

What wasn't so bearish was the 100 hour MA STALLED the fall. In fact, later in the day (yesterday) that MA stopped the fall for the 3rd time.

The correction higher in the Asia-Pacific session today, stalled around a lower ceiling at the 0.9225 level. That inability to run to the topside, and the subsequent fall below the 100 hour MA, got the ball running lower. BEARISH.

The 200 hour MA was broken (green line) next (MORE BEARISH), followed by a trend line connecting the lows going back to November 23rd (EVEN MORE BEARISH).

The low today has extended to the 38.2% of the move up from that November 23rd low at 0.91286. Below that and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour comes in at 0.91053. The price has not closed a bar below that MA line since October 15th.

The sellers are trying to take control in the pair. Close risk is the underside of the broken trend line. That comes in at 0.9164. Above that, the 200 hour MA at 0.9179 could be tested and still keep the sellers content. A move back above both those levels would muddy the waters a bit.

Looking at the daily chart below, the pair has been on tear to the upside since bottoming in early October. The move lower from the high is just a blip of that move.

So there is some hope for a peak to be put in place, but the sellers still have some work to do. In other words, don't necessarily thiink/believe a top is in place.

Nevertheless, the price action today, is a start and a step in the bearish direction for a change.