The 0.6479-85 is home to the 50% and the trend line
The NZDUSD is currently testing a lower trendline on the 4 hour chart at the 0.6485 level. Just below that is the 50% retracement of the move up from the October 1 low. That level comes in at 0.64790.
The price of the pair has been stepping to the downside in trading this week as concerns about the coronavirus weighs on the currency. Earlier today, the price did move below its 200 day moving average at 0.6505. That does increase the bearish bias. Yesterday the price stalled against that moving average level and corrected back to the upside.
So although the pair is looking to test some key support, the will below the 200 day moving average is also a significant bearish development. For the dip buyers to feel more comfortable, a move back above the 200 day moving average would be needed. Failure to do that, and I would expect the buyers to bail and selling to intensify lower.
I see the NZDUSD being influenced by what happens in China with the coronavirus. That is hard to predict, but the trend continues to be toward more people infected and more deaths. The good news is that the death to infected ratio is not near that of the SARS virus. The bad news is the global infected is near the affected number from SARS. So there is good news and bad news with the numbers.
