Oil risks high in the hours and days ahead

Technical Analysis

Author: Adam Button | oil

Oil trades nearly flat for the second day

WTI crude oil was down 6-cents to $41.56 in floor trading today in the second day of virtually unchanged trading.

Crude tried the upside and downside today with some choppy moves but it wasn't able to sustain any momentum.

I'm a major crude bear but I'm cautious at the moment. The US dollar was soft today and it's vulnerable for the rest of the week. Crude is also in danger because of upcoming releases.

In about an hour, the API weekly oil storage data is due. The market is expecting a drawdown of 668K barrels in the government data on Wed and that's a very good barometer for what's expected from API.

A larger drawdown could set off a bit of a squeeze in oil, especially because of nerves ahead of Friday's OPEC decision. At the moment, I see the short side of trade as slightly crowded but even is there is a $2 bounce higher, I think that's an opportunity to put on fresh shorts.


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