Price peaked at $50.92 on Friday. USDCAD holds 100 day MA at

Oil has been on a slow climb in the near term that took the price to a high of 50.92 on Friday. That peak got close to the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart below) which today is at the $51.18 level. The price of the Crude oil futures has not been above the 100 day MA since early July (see blue line in the chart below). The 50% of the move down from the May high at 65.03 comes in at $51.77. This too should put a lid on the upside.

The price today has now slipped to a low of $48.49. It currently trades at $48.80.

Fundamentally, MNI reports that Tim Evan, energy futures specialist at Citi futures comments that "the market continues to draw support from the idea of improving demand". However, he warns that "with tankers piling up off the coast China it's hard to be confident whether consumption is actually accelerating or just apparent demand for additional storage". He expects trading to consolidate.

The USDCAD has been moving lower as the price of oil peaked. The CAD tends to get stronger as oil prices moves higher (lower USDCAD). That move lower went right down to test the 100 day MA support at the 1.2894 level on Friday and again today. The low today came in just above the MA level at 1.2900. This level is a key risk defining level for traders and they seemed to respond to it. I would expect stops on a move below the key level.

The correction higher has taken the price to the 38.2-50% of the last leg down (from the Thursday high). That area comes between the 1.2966-86 area (see yellow area in the chart below). If oil continues to slide, a move above this area and then a test and move above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) will be bullish signs and help to confirm a low may be in place. The USDCAD price has not traded above the 100 hour MA since September 30th.

So overall, the technical dynamics are in place to potentially have extremes in place for both Oil and USDCAD against 100 day MA levels. Look for sellers on rallies in oil and buyers on dips in the USDCAD with wide risk being the 100 day MA levels on both.