The 100 hour MA on USDCAD has caught up to the price. Can it put a lid on it?
Sellers are trying to put a ceiling on the USDCAD against the 100 hour MA
The USDCAD trended lower since topping on May 31. That move took the price below the 100 (blue line) and 200 hour MAs (green line) back on June 3rd. The price has stayed below each since then.
The consolidation over the last few days, has allowed for the 100 hour MA (blue line) to catch up with the price in the pair. That 100 hour MA comes in at 1.3298. The highs over the last 5 hourly bars, has done a good job of putting a ceiling against the MA level. Sellers are trying to keep full control.
On the downside, sits the 200 day MA. The fall to the lows on the Monday opening, took the price away from that 200 day MA (it is at 1.3269 currently), but could not sustain the momentum. For most of Monday, the pair traded above and below the 200 day MA. Yesterday, the price traded below it for a good part of the day, but later in the NY afternoon, the price moved above the line and stayed above.
Clearly, the traders are weighing what to do next. The 100 hour MA has forced the issue a bit technically. Stay below that MA and get below the 200 day MA (and stay below) is the roadmap for the sellers. For the buyers, they might tolerate the 100 hour MA stalling on the first look, but will want to see the 200 day MA provide a base and launchpad for a run higher.
That's the setup. The MA's are forcing the issue. Can there be a shove now? PS. the DOE inventory data is out at the bottom of the hour. The private data showed a larger than expected build of 4852K (est -1000K).