Getting ready for the huge surge in initial claims
The JPY is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the market gears up for what will be a record initial claims report at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. The estimate go all the way up to 4M or so. The average is 1640K but who really knows. Last week, the number started the push higher to 281K. The Senate passed the 2T coronavirus stimulus bill last night. The news has failed to boost stocks. They are looking to open lower at this moment.
The ranges and changes are showing the major indices near extreme dollar down levels. The USDJPY is leading the way at down -161 pips and has been trending down for the entire day. The GBPUSD has traded on either side of the unchanged after an early decline reversed and moved higher. The AUDUSD and NZDUSD have also traded above and below the unchanged level, but are higher now (dollar down). The GBPUSD has the largest trading range for the day at 225 pips for the major pairs vs the USD.
In other markets:
- Spot gold is up $2.00 or 0.12% at $1619
- WTI crude oil is down -$0.94 or -3.80% at 23.54
In the premarket for US stocks, the futures are implying a lower level for all the major indices:
- S&P, -52 points
- Nasdaq -126 points
- Dow -486 points
In the European stock market, the major indices
- German Dax -3.0%
- France's CAC -2.95%
- UK FTSE 100 -2.4%
- Spain's Ibex, -1.63%
- Italy's FTSE MIB -2%
In the US debt market the US yields are trading lower with the 10 year down about 10 basis points:
In the European debt market, the 10 year benchmark yields are all pointing to the downside.