The NZDUSD price has been above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour since May 18th.
The NZDUSD has been rising since the pair hit 0.5920 back on May 15. In early June there was a consolidation with an bottom on June 22 at 0.63784 before resuming the run higher. That move peaked at 0.67149 on July 31. See the 4-hour chart below.....
Since then, the price has consolidated in up and down trading. That has allowed the 100 bar (blue line) and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (see green line in the chart above) to catch up to the price. On Friday, the price moved back below the 100 bar MA (blue line) and stayed below (it is currently at 0.66367).
Today, the 200 bar MA was breached for the first time since May 18th (see green line on the chart below).
That low also took out the low from last week at 0.6574. The low today reached 0.65707, but momentum died and the first break is a failure (so far).
The MA is currently at 0.6577 and the price is just above that at 0.6587. If the price can move back below, the dip buyers may not be as anxious to buy the dip.
So watch the MA (and the lows down to 0.65707) going forward. Hold and the pair could see another rotation higher. Move below and the dip buyers against the defined risk levels, should look to exit.
