What are some of the key levels for the major currency pairs going into Friday's trading day
Tomorrow, at 8:30 AM ET, the US labor department will release their jobs report. The expectations are for nonfarm payroll to add 490K vs 235K last month. An additional 500 K or so would further eat into the job shortfall of nearly 5 million since the start of Covid.
The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 5.1% from 5.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.4% versus 0.6% last month. Fed's Powell said that it will not take a blockbuster report for the Fed to move toward tapering by the end of the year. As a result, there is less anxiety perhaps. Nevertheless it is unemployment day and there can always be some big moves
So what key technical levels are in play as the new day works toward the jobs report?
EURUSD: The EURUSD remains within a 25 pip trading range for the day. That compares to the 50 PIP average over the last 22 trading days (about a month). Of significance is that the price is below its 100 week moving average at 1.16028 and 200 week moving average at 1.15698. The high price today reached just above that 200 week moving average level I.15717. That increases the levels importance going into the new trading day. A move above the 200 week moving average would have traders targeting the falling 100 hour moving average currently at 1.1584 and the falling 200 hour moving average 1.1610. Move above all those levels and the buyers are more in control. On the downside, the cycle low comes in at 1.15284. Below that level and the 50% midpoint of the trading range since the March 2020 low comes in at 1.14918.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD did extend its trading range to the upside today in the US session after tests of the 200 hour MA and higher 100 hour MA stalled falls intraday. The 100 hour MA is currently at 1.3592 (and moving higher). The 200 hour moving averages at 1.3563 (and still inching lower). A move below each those moving averages in the new trading day will be needed to tilt the bias more to the downside technically (the current price is trading at 1.3617). On a break lower, the low for the week came in at 1.3531. The low from last week was at 1.3411. Between the levels is a swing low going back to January 2021 (which was the old low for the year before last week's failed break) at 1.34498. On a move higher, the 50% retracement of the move down from the September high comes in at 1.36617. Get above that level and the door should open up for further upside momentum with 1.3700 as the next key target to get to and through.
USDJPY: The USDJPY based today against its 100 hour moving average and moved modestly higher. The 100 hour moving average is at 111.28. The 200 hour moving average is just above that level at 111.354. The current price is trading above those moving averages at 111.62. On a move lower, getting below those moving averages would be the key barometer for sellers. It would tilt the bias more in the favor of the downside with the low for the week at 110.809 the next key downside swing level. On more upside momentum, getting above 111.703 and the high for the week at 111.78, opens the door for a retest of the September 2021 high - and the highest level going back to February 2020 - at 112.074. A move above that level and the February 2020 high at 112.22 is not far away. That is the highest level since April 2019 and should solicit more buying on a break.
USDCHF: The USDCHF has moved back above its 100 hour moving average today at 0.9277 and is up testing its 200 hour moving average at 0.92906. The sellers had their shot, but they could not keep the momentum going, and the last few hours has seen a rotation back to the upside. If the price can get above the 200 hour moving average (at 0.92906), that would tilt the bias more to the upside once again. The question on a break would become, "Can the price stay above those hourly moving averages and push more to the upside?". The next key target area on the topside comes in at 0.9304 to 0.93101. That area is home to swing lows and highs going back to September 17. A move above that level and traders will start to target 0.9332 to 0.9337.
AUDUSD: The AUDUSD stepped higher in trading today and in the process was able to hold support ahead of its rising 100 hour moving average on a couple of different occasions. The 100 hour moving average currently comes in at 0.72759. It would take a move below that moving average and the lower 200 hour moving average at 0.72554 to tilt the bias more exclusively in the favor of the sellers. Having said that, the high price today stalled right at the 50% midpoint of the move down from the September 2021 high to the September 2021 low. That midpoint level comes in at 0.73229. If the price can't get above the 50% midpoint, there could be a rotation back down toward the aforementioned moving average levels. The jobs report will then give the next shove which would probably the dependent on "risk on" (stocks moving higher ) or "risk off" (stocks moving lower) price action.
NZDUSD: The NZDUSD rebounded to the upside today, but the gains were limited by reluctance to extend in a meaningful way above the 200 and 100 hour moving averages. The 200 hour moving average currently comes in at 0.6934. The 100 hour moving average is a few pips higher at 0.69377. The high price for the day reached 0.69432. In the new trading day if the buyers are to take more control, getting above those moving averages - and staying above those moving averages - will be the key barometer. A move above would then target the 0.6976 and 0.69809 area which it is home to the highs this week from both Monday and Wednesday (after the RBNZ rate decision). It is also where the 38.2% retracement of the range since the September high cuts across at 0.69763. If the price cannot get and stay above the moving averages, and there is more trading below 0.6915, look for a retest of the low from last Friday and the low from Thursday's trade at 0.6877. Move below that and the swing lows from last week near 0.68569 would be eyed.
USDCAD: The USDCAD will have the impact from both the US jobs report AND the Canadian jobs report tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. The expectations for the employment change is for a gain of 59.5K vs 90.2K last month. The Unemployment rate is expected to dip to 6.9% from 7.1%. What technical levels are in play? The USDCAD traded to a new week low at 1.25395, but that move only took out Tuesday's low by a few pips. So there is some reluctance. Nevertheless on more downside momentum the 200 day moving average 1.25126 will be the next key target followed by the low from September 3 at 1.2487. The 100 day moving averages at 1.24757. Needless to say a break below both the 200 day moving average and 100 day moving average would increase the bearish bias from a technical perspective. If the price can rebound, getting above 1.25769 to 1.25832 what have traders looking toward the falling 100 hour moving average at 1.2598. Move above the 100 hour moving average should solicit more upside momentum with the 200 hour moving average at 1.26422 as another key upside target that would need to be broken if the buyers are to take more control
