The USDCAD has been waffling up and down over the last two+ trading days. The low to high range has seen the price trade at 1.24455 and up to 1.24974. The price decline reached the lowest levels going back to the end of July, but is taking a breather after the recent run lower. The high price from September 20 reached up to 1.28950. The decline to the low from yesterday has taken the price down some 450 pips over the 16 trading days.
Going back to last Friday, the price on that day moved below both the 200 day moving average (currently at 1.25088) and the 100 day moving average (currently at 1.2488). The catalyst was the stronger than expected Canadian jobs report, and the somewhat weaker than expected US jobs data.
Yesterday and again today, the price traded above and below the 100 day moving average level. However the 200 day moving average has remained untouched.
If the buyers are to take more control, getting back above the 100 day moving average AND 200 day moving average would be needed from a technical perspective. Also in play is the falling 100 hour moving average currently at 1.2521. A move above that level would also be needed to increase the bullish bias after the recent declines.
Until those steps are taken (getting above the 100 day MA would be step 1), the sellers remain more in control.
A move below the low from yesterday at 1.24455 would increase the bearish bias, and have traders looking toward the 1.2422 area. That level is home to swing lows going back to July 7, July 14 and July 30 (see daily chart below).