The USDCAD moved up to the 100 hour MA in the early minutes of trading in the North American session and found sellers. The MA at the time was at 1.44278. The high price reached 1.4424. Sellers showed they wanted to keep control and they leaned against the level. Keep that idea in mind.
The price has rotated lower to a NY session low at 1.4300 but found buyers there. The price is currently trading back up at 1.4359 in volatile trading.
On the downside, the 200 hour MA is rising and coming into play (see green line). It currently is at 1.42767 and moving higher. The price of the USDCAD has not traded below the 200 hour MA since March 4th when there were two hourly bars where the price barely moved below the MA line. You have to go back to February 21 to find a more concerted fall below that MA line. The level at the time was around 1.3250. We are 1100 pips higher now.
Needless to say, the pair has gone "a long way baby". The holding of the 100 hour MA at the high today is a clue that sellers want to put a lid on it.
Can sellers keep that bias? Can sellers keep the lid on the pair?
That is the risk now. Stay below and there is potential for more downside probing with the 200 hour MA the next key downside target. Below that the 38.2% of the move up from the March 4 low will be the next target at 1.4154 area.
Move above the 100 hour MA and all selling/bearish thoughts are off for the pair.