The USDCAD 38.2% comes in at 1.32557
The USDCAD price reached a topside trend line on the daily chart last week and found sellers leaning against the line (on Tuesday and Wednesday). The low from last week reached 1.3266. That was short of the 38.2% of the move up from the September 1 low at 1.32557.
The price action today has seen the price move below the low from last week to 1.32567, right to the retracement level. It will take a move below to solicit more selling.
Drilling to the hourly chart, the ceiling from last week (and going back to September 24) was strong (as the price tested the trendline on the daily chart). The subsequent fall stalled the price move below moving averages (blue and green lines) and swing lows.
On Friday the corrective move higher stalled near the 38.2% retracement of the move lower at 1.33248 and near swing levels from September 24, September 25 and September 30 (see red numbered circles and yellow area). Sellers leaned in that area and started to push the price back to the downside.
Today's price action has been a slow grind to the downside. The price in the current hourly bar just reached the 38.2% retracement from the September low at 1.32567. Get below is more bearish.
The sellers are trying to take more control in the USDCAD. However, it will take a move below the 38.2% of the range since September 1 at 1.32567 to solicit more downside momentum (1.3246 would be the next target on a break).
Close risk for sellers (and a topside target for dip buyers) come sin at 1.32785-1.3877. That area is home to a swing low going back to September 22 and swing lows from October 1. A move back above would take some of the downside control from the sellers.
