The 1.2831-60 are swing high/low areas form 2015
The USDCAD is looking to test a support area in the 1.2831-60 area. This area had swing highs and lows in 2015. Weekly natural gas inventories due out.
The Canada GDP was better than expected today with MoM coming in at +0.6% vs. +0.3% est. and YoY coming in at 1.5% vs 1.1% est. Crude oil today is trading at $38.76 currently, that is up 1.25% on the day.
The USDCAD reached a peak in January - ahead of the February low in oil price at the $26 per barrel level. The pair is now moved below the 61.8% of the move up from the May 2015 low. That comes in at 1.2977 and will be a risk level for shorts going forward (get above to take some of the pressure off).
The test here at the 1.2831-60 is key for the pair going forward. I would expect that buyers will use the level to define and limit risk/take profit/stick a toe in the water - with stops on a break below. The low reached 1.2856.
Looking at the 5- minute intraday chart, the price broke below a trend line on the way to the lows. A corrective move back above that line and above the 38.2-50% of the last trend move lower today, should relieve some of the bearishness.